About this site

This site was created by Johannes Elias, currently employed at DRK Kliniken Berlin. It was created as a follow-up to a publication dealing with the prediction of probability of nasal MRSA carriage in patients admitted to a German university hospital.


The purpose of this site is purely educational. Predicted probabilities or estimated positive predictive values are not necessarily correct for your setting. The main aim of this project is the promotion of scientific discussion.

How does it work?

The prediction tool uses the very same models as described in the paper. In fact, it even uses the same software (R) to calculate the probabilities of carriage and expected positive predictive values.


I would like to thank Ulrich Vogel, who motivated me to continue to work on this topic. Peter Heuschmann is acknowledged for introducing me to the topic of calibration. I also thank Sven Schimanski for suggesting that I create this site. Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to all the authors and supporters of our original paper.


If you have any helpful comments or suggestions, please contact me by email.